Bitcoin: My Outlook For The Rest Of 2021
Today we're going to talk about bitcoin
and my general outlook for the rest of 2021. if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the Blog give the articles a thumbs up and also check out the where i think the market's headed and and you know ultimately what i see for us this market cycle if you're new to the channel you should know that i think in general we will have a lengthened cycle that can go well beyond 2021 2022 at least possibly even 2023 okay and i also think we'll have diminishing returns which means we will not make it to 300 thousand dollars so let's go ahead and get that out of the way i know i've offended some of you i'm deeply sorry um but again i i think we'll have diminishing returns and i don't think we have a snowball's chance of of making it to 300 thousand dollars in this market cycle now with that said what does the rest of 2021 hold and i've you know i've articulated before that for me okay for me i've defined bitcoin being below the 20 week sma as being bearish okay naturally this upsets some people naturally i'm stepping on the toes of those that would have you believe it's going to go to 300 000 by the end of the year naturally it goes against the idea of
a standard four-year cycle naturally it goes against the stock to flow model um but i don't i i don't i should not be constrained to what other people define as a bear market to fit their model i'm defining it. I'm defining bitcoin as being bearish
simply when it's below the 20 week sma and i'm defining it being bullish when it's above the 20 week estimate the beauty of the way that i'm defining it is that it is not subject to my own bias of what i think is going to happen in the market it's not subject to to me saying things like well it has to go to this price like you know if i were following a specific model and i i felt like it had to go to a certain price by a certain date then you could be more inclined to not believe what the data suggests and and then just blindly accept that it has to go to these prices otherwise it would mean your beloved model is wrong and that can't be right right that can't be right because everyone everyone thinks bitcoin's going to remain bullish um you know for the next six months or a lot of people do right a lot of people do i know some people like i know there's a lot of people that likeonly watch my channel or or maybe watch a few other channels and they don't really know what i'm talking about but believe me. There's way more people that watch other
channels that that just tell them it's gonna go you know it's a 300 000 by the end of the year and and so i i just want people to understand that in order in order for us to go to three hundred thousand dollars by the end of the year you have to basically blindly believe that things will remain bullish indefinitely for the rest i mean well maybe not indefinitely but at least for the rest of 2021 therefore you have to write off any movement to the downside as just another correction that we will immediately recover from and see a v-shaped recovery so with that in mind i said over a month ago i did not expect a v-shaped recovery and as far as i can tell i mean this does not look like a v-shaped recovery to me i know there's some that say well hey we could still have a v-shaped recovery again as i said as i said on twitter i mean if this if this really is a v-shaped recovery then i need to complain to my elementary school for not properly teaching me my letters because i don't know what kind of hell hellish v this looks like if this is supposed to be a v-shaped recovery this does not look like any v i've ever seen okay i mean we've we came down and then we've been moving sideways for a month and a half how's you know how is this a v-shaped recovery. so where could i where could we turn
around because i think a lot of people want to know well has been going to be bullish like when is bing going to be overly bullish well i also should first say that any type of strategy should come with caveats right i don't think it's smart for any one person to say this has to happen therefore i'm going to pretend like it's going to happen regardless of what happens on the charts i think we're going to have a lengthen cycle i think we're going to have diminishing returns this is what i think is what i think what would cause me to
get overly bullish for the rest of 2021 well if bitcoin got back above the 20-week sma and and had weekly closes above it and then it came back down and tested it as support like it did over here and it held it at support.
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